Job prospects Home Child Care Provider in Canada

People working as a home child care provider have different job prospects depending on where they work in Canada. Find out what the future holds for them in your province or territory. These outlooks are applicable to all Home child care providers (NOC 4411).

Note that the current 2019-2021 Employment Outlook was published in December 2019 based on information available at that time.

Job opportunities over the next 3 years

Explore future job prospects by province and territory.

Location Job prospects
Newfoundland and Labrador Limited Limited
Prince Edward Island Undetermined Undetermined
Nova Scotia Limited Limited
New Brunswick Fair Fair
Quebec Limited Limited
Ontario Good Good
Manitoba Fair Fair
Saskatchewan Limited Limited
Alberta Fair Fair
British Columbia Limited Limited
Yukon Territory Good Good
Northwest Territories Good Good
Nunavut Fair Fair
Legend: The job opportunities can be: Undetermined Limited Fair Good

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Labour market conditions over the next 10 years

Take a closer look at the projected labour demand and supply for this occupation over the 2019-2028 period. For more information on future job trends, go to the Canadian Occupational Projections System.

Summary

BALANCE: Labour demand and labour supply are expected to be broadly in line for this occupation group over the 2019-2028 period at the national level. The section below contains more detailed information regarding the outlook for this occupational group.

Employment in 2018

35,200

Median age of workers in 2018

39

Average retirement age in 2018

65.0

Detailed analysis

In order to determine the expected outlook of an occupation, the magnitude of the difference between the projected total numbers of new job seekers and job openings over the whole projection period (2019-2028) is analyzed in conjunction with an assessment of labour market conditions in recent years. The intention is to determine if recent labour market conditions (surplus, balance or shortage) are expected to persist or change over the period 2019-2028. For instance, if the analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was insufficient to fill the job openings (a shortage of workers) in an occupational group in recent years, the projections are used to assess if this situation will continue over the projection period or if the occupation will move towards balanced conditions.

Over the 2016-2018 period, employment in this occupational group decreased sharply. This is following a trend that started back in 2012. However, the unemployment rate also declined, reaching 6.9% in 2018, well below its own historical average, but above national average of 5.8%. Job vacancy data is not available for this occupation. This is an occupation where temporary foreign workers (TFW) have historically been a major source of labour supply, given the popularity of the Live-in Caregiver Program (LCP). In fact, in 2009 they represented about half of home childcare providers. However, the number of TFW has declined over the past decade, especially since the reforms introduced in 2014, where the live-in requirement was lifted. This has coincided with the pronounced job declined in the occupation. In addition, the creation of many regulated child care spaces in early childhood centers across the country led to a decline in the demand for home child care provider services. Hence, the mixed signals of labour market indicators suggested that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group over the 2016-2018 period.

For Home child care providers, over the period 2019-2028, new job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 2,000 , while 400 new job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to be available to fill them.

As job openings and job seekers are projected to be at relatively similar levels over the 2019-2028 period, the balance between labour supply and demand seen in recent years is expected to continue over the projection period. The downtrend observed in employment since 2012 is expected to continue over the projection period, albeit at a slower rate. Although the regulated childcare institutions are expected to stay, the increase in the population aged 0 to 5 years old over the projection period will counterbalance this declining trend and boost demand for home childcare providers. Given the projected continuation of job losses, all job openings are projected to arise from replacing workers, especially those retiring. This is despite the fact that the retirement rate is below the average of all occupations, as these workers tend to be substantially younger, but retire at a similar age than workers in other occupations.

With regard to labour supply, new immigrants are projected to account for the majority of job seekers. This occupational grouping is very popular among newcomers, notably due to the caregiver immigration program that streamlines the application process for these workers. Indeed, the broad eligibility criteria encourage many foreign workers to apply. Despite the reforms introduced in 2014, the TFW program for caregivers remain popular and a key source of labour for this occupation. School leavers are still expected to represent about one-third of labour supply. Among these, a number of young graduate mothers may decide to open a daycare at home to, notably, take care of their young kid(s). Finally, an appreciable number of workers are expected to seek opportunities in other occupations looking for higher wages, notably in early childhood educators and assistants (NOC 4214).

Source Canadian Occupational Projections System – ESDC

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